03 October 2008

Election Prediction via Intrade

Yesterday I caught my annual autumn cold so instead of heading out to friends' comedy and music shows, I stayed in and watched the VP debate. What a travesty Sarah Palin is. I'm not going to go into it, she disgusts me and is an insult to women (among other things). However, in between naps today I found myself at Intrade, the market predictor of important things. As of today there is a 70% chance that Obama/Biden win the election and these type of markets have been consistently accurate in predicting recent election winners. Getting wind of this perked me up a bit and it's worth keeping tabs on over the next 5 weeks (also, make sure you're registered to vote, you have until next Friday 10/10 to do this).


Politickr said...

Hi! If you're interested in Intrade, you should check out my blog - http://politickr.blogspot.com - where I track pundit predictions and political prediction market developments. I'm a journalist and a political day trader who's kind of obsessed with this stuff.

nigeleccles said...

I think McCain would be happy with those odds now. We (and nearly all the UK betting sites) are forecasting he has a 23% chance of being the next president. Here is a link to page with links to all the markets trading this contract: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election